Newsletter

As another day (week, month, year) of Fed Watching begins, we thought it would be useful to remind readers that CPI is not a mystical beast but rather a man-made system for measuring price changes across a basket of goods. These baskets are well known and their price indices are published each month. The CPI aggregate index tends to mask what is actually happening in the individual components. Journalists can’t see past the mask and their reports are misleading. They…

This past week, Fidelity® wrote about the likelihood of Fed rate cuts in 2024, despite higherthan expected inflation reports in January and February. We made a similar case to clients inlast quarter’s market update and felt the idea was worth repeating. The Federal Reserve closely monitors a wide range of economic conditions whendetermining its monetary policy. While inflation, labor conditions, and wage growth receivesignificant attention, there’s an often overlooked factor: real interest rates (or real yields). FedChair Jerome Powell has…