The quote above was popularized by Mark Twain, who attributed it to Benjamin
Disraeli, although Al claims the phrase pre-dates both and has no known origin.
Nevertheless, it aptly applies to today’s economic conditions.

If you have a preconceived outlook, you can almost certainly find official data to
support it. Case in point: the U.S. labor market.

The official unemployment rate (U-3) remains near historic lows at 4.2%, while wage
growth remains above the prior decade’s trends.

At the same time, the JOLTS hiring rate—the percentage of unemployed persons
hired—of 3.3% is in the bottom 11% of outcomes since 2000. Similarly, the expected
likelihood of finding a job, according to the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer
Expectations, has fallen to 44.9%, near record lows.

This is not an indication that the data is flawed. Rather, it is a sign that stresses
in economic conditions are being masked by strong aggregate data.

This phenomenon, often described as a “K-Shaped Economy,” is widespread, and we
cover it in great detail in our full Economic Update, presented to clients each quarter.