INSIGHTS

What are the odds Raleigh, NC sees 8–10 inches of snow? For any random weekend, the answer is essentially zero. Narrow the window to winter weekends? Still near zero. Even if meteorologists call for 8 10 inches? History says… still zero. This is a lighthearted way to introduce a serious concept—conditional probability—and it frames the first installment of our multi-part series on using empirical data to identify market regimes {performance and/or risk conditions}. This month, we begin with insider sentiment,…

It is that time of year – when investment newsletters take a moment to look back and compare market performance relative to history. In typical Comperio fashion, we prefer to change the perspective, in hopes of adding additional insight to information you read elsewhere. You may have read the S&P 500 returned 17.88% in 2025, its 26th best result over the past 55 years. A more useful view is knowing that an investor would earn 17.88% if they had invested…

Last month, we introduced the notion that the economy is becoming increasingly divided. BlackRock uses the term “bifurcation,” ChatGPT prefers “Dual Economy,” and the common nomenclature is “K-shaped.” This theme is unmistakable across labor markets, consumer spending patterns, wealth and income, and consumer debt. A similar theme has been playing out across capital markets for years: the increasing concentration of a few names in generating massive stock market returns. With the government shutdown, reliable economic data has become relatively scarce.…

Last week, the Commerce Department revised second-quarter GDP growth upward to 3.3% from 3.0%, with the modest boost largely reflecting stronger consumer spending. As we’ve noted before, the consumer has carried the economy through this cycle—remarkably resilient despite the Fed’s ongoing tightening. That resilience, however, is showing signs of strain. Labor markets are softening, credit card usage is slowing, and wage growth is normalizing. Inflation tied to the COVID-era surge has largely cooled (outside of financial services), but tariff-related price…

Long-time readers know that we have been cautious of a slowdown in consumer spending at a time when the consumer was the primary factor keeping the economy afloat. In hindsight, we were too early in that call: the consumer remained resilient much longer than expected, defiant in the face of rapid inflation. But this week’s GDP report suggests consumption has indeed slowed, growing at less than 1% annualized rate in 2025 versus 3% in each of the two prior years.…