“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future” – Yogi Berra Mainstream economic theory has taken a beating in recent years. Sophisticated tools (rules) that were developed to forecast relatively small changes in economic conditions have been unreliable with the extreme changes the world has faced since the onset of COVID. For instance, the Index of Leading Economic Indicators has been flashing a recession warning since late 2021, a period where the US experienced strong economic growth. In our…