Comperio Retirement Consulting

Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, explicitly stated the Fed would no longer provide ‘forward guidance’. Nevertheless, pundits reported that Warsh signaled future rate hikes. Similarly, but not necessarily an endorsement of pundits, markets have priced in a single ¼ point rate increase by year-end. Expectations for the policy rate at year-end are now nearly a full percentage point higher than they were four months ago, despite fading tariff impacts and retreating oil prices. Compare: As of 2/26/2026 – days…

What are the odds Raleigh, NC sees 8–10 inches of snow? For any random weekend, the answer is essentially zero. Narrow the window to winter weekends? Still near zero. Even if meteorologists call for 8 10 inches? History says… still zero. This is a lighthearted way to introduce a serious concept—conditional probability—and it frames the first installment of our multi-part series on using empirical data to identify market regimes {performance and/or risk conditions}. This month, we begin with insider sentiment,…

It is that time of year – when investment newsletters take a moment to look back and compare market performance relative to history. In typical Comperio fashion, we prefer to change the perspective, in hopes of adding additional insight to information you read elsewhere. You may have read the S&P 500 returned 17.88% in 2025, its 26th best result over the past 55 years. A more useful view is knowing that an investor would earn 17.88% if they had invested…